The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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The market continues to wait with bated breath for an official decision on whether or not EUDR regulations will be pushed back or not. A vote on this is planned for Nov/Dec.
Argentina seems to be buying well, however Brazil seems to be struggling to comply with EUDR, increasing premiums.
Overall yields have been cut slightly, however Brazil’s planting is positive and rain is forecast.
The market remains heavy with it looking like the bottom is yet to be found.
There isn’t a great deal of change from last week, lots of switching from soya to rapemeal due to the EUDR situation, causing artificial premiums.
Now that EUDR is more than likely to be postponed to 2025 and soya prices are falling, there will be switches back to soya.
Rapemeal pricing is very much based on supply and demand at the moment.
Production in the Ukraine has been revised down, with estimated production for 2024/25 in the EU decreasing 200KT to 17.45MMT.
Soil moisture for winter rapeseed could be improved with recent rain in the Ukraine, but crop conditions in some regions remain unfavourable due to dryness.
Currently crushes in the origins are reluctant sellers because if EUDR regulations are passed, logistically they will struggle to supply as hulls cannot be shipped without meal.
This being said, even though the UK is not part of the EU, if the vote next month delays EUDR regulations to the end of 2025, it looks likely levels will ease as crushes will be more inclined to sell.
Logistics seem to be easing in the US, however there is still a backlog from the hurricane and lower water levels.
Ethanol margins are now negative, so producers are only selling as and when they need to and a lot of plants are undergoing their autumn maintenance period.
Corn co-products are finding a decent bid into the UK, with their relative value still looking good.
With talks of the EUDR being pushed back to 2025 it leaves uncertainty lingering.
Sugarbeet remains very much status quo, with the imported market being as good as non-existent.
Small amounts of imported material available, however domestic demand is pretty much being met in its entirety by home-produced product.
Global markets were supported last week on the back of escalating middle eastern tensions, weather concerns in key growing countries (mostly France and Russia where the weather is leading to delayed plantings) and speculation that Russia’s export policy could change.
On Friday the USDA released its world supply and demand estimates which was generally in line with expectations.
Overall still a bullish outlook.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
If you lift a kangaroo’s tail off the ground, it can’t hop and the odds of being bitten by a shark, bear or snake in any three-year period is 893 quadrillion to one.
Notes:
All data in this report are provided by KW. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Historical Product Prices
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/21 to 16/10/2024 (£/t)
'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $
Currency Trends as of 16/10/2024. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
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