The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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With the short week in the US, markets adjusted ahead of their day off, pushing prices higher, alongside some protection being built into prices here while Chicago was closed.
Weather in Argentina & Brazil remains favourable for crops there.
It’s still early in the growing season, so markets seem a little cautious on pushing prices much lower for now.
Trump has re-iterated his intention to put further tariffs on China in January, which would likely push more Chinese demand to South American soybeans potentially creating a larger premium over US beans.
For now Chinese purchase of US beans continues, with US export sales reaching a marketing year high of 2.49MMT.
Rapemeal pushed higher in line with soya, but remains at 69-72% of the soya value in the south and 77-81% in the north.
Nearby availability is tightening up as the festive period approaches.
Germany is well sold on rapemeal for Feb/Apr, so higher prices are being seen in Europe, which is filtering back to domestic prices here, (crushers could export to Europe to take advantage of better prices there).
Trump brought up again his intention to put tariffs on Canadian goods, which pushed Canadian canola prices down as it could reduce the exports from Canada to the US of canola oil and meal, but that doesn’t mean it will come to the UK/Europe as it’s GM.
European production is expected to be up 12%, though the UK is forecast lower again.
Minimal change on prices, with no fresh news in the market.
Demand for South American products is keeping the market supported for now.
Prices still look competitive against other fibre options, which will keep demand at similar levels.
Maize distiller prices moved back over the past week, as a 14% increase was seen in US production of DDGs month-on-month. This was despite tightening margins for plants.
Wheat distillers remain tight for this winter with any imported product at uncompetitive prices against other mid-protein, but there have been some more attractive prices around for next summer.
Home produced prices were increased slightly, but demand still remains relatively sluggish overall.
Imported product is very limited and still doesn’t look great value against other options on the market, but shippers remains reluctant to commit to more shipments with no demand.
Prices eased back a little, as Black Sea grain remains competitive despite Russia’s announcement of an 11MMT export quota on wheat for mid-Feb to the end of Jun, (vs the 29MMT exported in that period last year)
There was always an expectation this would have to come in at some point given the smaller crop & export pace so far this season.
Russia has also brought in increases to wheat export duties, in order to dissuade sales.
Countered against this though, is good conditions across Western Europe and the UK, giving more confidence to new crop.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
Different tennis balls are used for men’s and women’s matches; the men’s are fluffier to slow them down and Football World Cup referees have to learn swear words in other languages.
Notes:
All data in this report are provided by KW. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/21 to 04/12/2024 (£/t)
'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $
Currency Trends as of 04/12/2024. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
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