The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.
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Prices began to retreat again at the end of last week and into this week.
There has been some resistance due to some strong sales to China from the US, but it was countered by the harvest progress in the US and plantings in South America.
It was also pushed down further due to the low crude oil market.
US harvest is now at 89% complete vs 78% on the 5 year average.
Planting progress in Brazil has leapt up, where they were 20% behind the 5 year average, they are now only 7% and should catch up.
Argentina should be starting to plant soon, with improving conditions and rains in the coming weeks.
The market is likely to be expecting South America to come good with big crops and it feels like this is reflected in the prices, however weather issues can easily turn these markets.
A note on EUDR – the parliament vote to ratify the 12 month delay should happen between the 13th – 14th November, as it has been agreed by the EU Council already, but some parties are seeking reassurances that it won’t be delayed beyond 12 months.
Nearby prices have fallen out of bed in the south, as Erith comes back to the market to shift heavy stocks of meal.
Frustratingly, it’s increasingly tricky to get lorries out of Erith due to changes in TfL rules and Erith not bringing in much seed by truck.
Nearby prices are now back at 65% of the soya price in the south, but higher at 74% in the north.
Further forward levels look dearer still, around 68 – 70% in the south and 77 – 80% in the north.
Further forward remains led mainly by soya, with the only rapemeal specific bullish factors being possibilities of EU crushers swapping to soya and potential reduced seed supply come May/Jul.
Prices took a step back in the past week, as shippers look to be trying to compete for sales a little more, as they start to bring in shipments.
Prices still look reasonable against other fibres.
Marginal movement on prices again as ethanol margins remain positive in the US for maize.
But nearby supply is remaining at premiums as Mississippi river levels are lower meaning freight becoming a little trickier and more expensive.
Wheat distillers also remain steady with Vivergo not in the market, though they look quite dear against other options.
The same story…. Plenty of home produced and very little imported.
No movement on prices as demand remains steady, where people are moving away from soya products.
Future market values came under pressure from both improved weather for plantings and competition from the Black Sea.
US winter wheat crops are expected to receive rains in the coming weeks, as 58% was reported to be in drought.
Some drier weather forecasts over the UK and Western Europe should assist with plantings, which have struggled to get going with the constant rains.
It became apparent over the last week that some Russian exporters were not sticking to the recommend minimum price, ( set by the Russian Ag Ministry to limit exports due to their smaller crops).
The latest Tunisian tender went to a Black Sea exporter, showing that they remain competitive in the market, further reinforced by EU exports being down 30% year-on-year.
And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….
If you have a pizza with radius z and thickness a, its volume is pi*z*z*a and the first motorist to fined for speeding in the UK was Walter Arnold in 1896. He was doing 8mph in a 2mph zone.
Notes:
All data in this report are provided by KW. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.
For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139
Historical Product Prices
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Spot Price Trends 01/01/21 to 30/10/2024 (£/t)
'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $
Currency Trends as of 30/10/2024. Blue = GBP:USD. Red = GBP:EUR
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