Dec 123 min read

Orion Farming Group Weekly Straights Update: 12th December 2024

The figures in the charts are an indication only and reflect levels traded on Wednesday.

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Hipro Soya

South American crops remain in good condition and plantings have gone fairly well, with the weather looking wet in Brazil and slightly less so in Argentina, but both countries forecast good temperatures.
Funds are now short on both beans and meal (near record short on meal), having put this position on in the last month.
Bearing this in mind, it’s important to stay aware of any potential weather issues as funds could make some large swings very easily, if they get spooked.
The latest USDA report is expected to leave South American production numbers unchanged and possibly a small increase to global ending stocks.

Jan/Apr prices rose, whilst May/Oct remained at similar levels.
The increase in the nearby months has been down to higher Lower Rhine (European) prices, due to German crush plants being well sold now.
This is as a result of non-GM pig feed producers in Germany coming in to buy chunks of rapemeal, which offers better value than non-GM soya currently.
Additionally, there is still concern around seed supply in the UK and Europe through to July.
Prices still look uncompetitive against soya, sitting around 73% for old crop in the south and 83% in the north.
The only thing that could put some pressure on meal prices, is if crushers get some interest in the oil side, as this would encourage some discounted meal prices to get some sales on the books, (subject to seed prices holding steady).

Prices remain at similar levels, as prices continue to put it as the best value fibre on the market.
Demand remains good, but hasn’t increased dramatically, keeping the market well balanced.
South American crops are currently looking good, which bodes well for a good supply of hulls come next summer – but it always comes with the caveat of weather risk.

Minimal change on maize distillers prices this week, as the market settles.
October exports of US distillers were up 10% from September, which tallies with the price movements that have been seen.
More recent weeks have seen a slow down in US ethanol production due to the holidays there.
Wheat distillers are still tricky for the winter, with limited sellers across the country and prices looking dear against other mid-proteins.
Next summer offers look more attractive and are worth considering cover.

The market continues to stagnate, still with little demand, against a backdrop of good home produced supply but minimal imported product.
As mentioned before, shippers are reluctant to bring imported sugarbeet in for the summer with no sales.
But there is expected to be decent supply of home produced, though likely with a premium from the winter.

London wheat futures rebounded towards the end of last week, as weather conditions are more mixed.
Russia continues to increase export taxes to limit selling, but they remain a competitive origin still.
Their winter wheat crop is in pretty poor condition and that is starting to be factored into prices, as discussion is turning as to whether some will be replanted with spring options next year.
On the other hand, US winter wheat is in good condition.
It still seems that this market is finely balanced between supply and demand, with less of a glut of product than other markets.

And finally, totally irrelevant but quite interesting facts of the week…….

Action Man’s actual name is Matthew Exler and John Wayne loved wearing his Stetson so much he had the roof of his car raised.

Notes:

All data in this report are provided by KW. Price indications are based on 29t bulk tipped loads delivered to Oxfordshire and are guide prices only.

For firm prices and availability, please contact Joe Cobb on 01865 393 139

Historical Product Prices

'Price at Fixed GBP to USD (Jan 2018)' takes out the effect of exchange rate movements between £ vs. $

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